FreddieMac: Economic and Housing Market Outlook Compared to What a Healthy Housing Market Should Look Like

Date Published 11/16/2012
Author Marja Hoek-Smit
Theme
Country United States




FreddieMac’s recent data show that the US housing market is healing. The S&P/Case- Shiller 20 city and the Federal Housing Finance Agency’s purchase-only price indexes continue to show positive gains, home sales were at a rate of almost 5 million for the first nine months of 2012, and home-owner and rental vacancy rates have declined to 1.9 percent and 8.6 percent respectively. Interestingly, the Outlook compares these data with what a healthy housing market should look like:

  • Housing starts increasing to about 1.7 to 1.8 million dwellings per year compared with 2.1 million in 2005.
  • Home sales increasing to about 5 percent of the housing stock, or about 6.5 to 7.0 million homes per year, compared with sales of 7 percent of the stock in 2005.
  • U.S. house price appreciation rising gradually to about 3 percent per year compared to 11 percent of 2005.
  • Vacancy rates easing further to about 1.7 percent on for-sale homes and 8 percent for rental homes, down from peaks of about 3 percent in 2008 and 11 percent in 2009, respectively.
  • Serious delinquency rates nearing 2 percent, down from a peak of 9.5 percent in early 2010.

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